By Stephanie Johnson
Published March 2026
February is often the month when the Sonoma County housing market begins to transition out of winter and quietly prepare for spring. This year’s data reflects that shift — but with a notable contrast from last year: inventory has tightened dramatically, sales activity has held steady, and pricing has lowered slightly while remaining historically strong.
Below is a clear year-over-year comparison to frame the story.
The Big Picture: Slight Price Adjustment, Major Supply Contraction
The median sales price in February 2026 came in at $982,531, down modestly from $998,254 one year ago. A roughly 1.6% adjustment year-over-year suggests pricing has softened slightly, but remains highly resilient given the broader market environment.
What stands out more than pricing is supply.
Months of inventory dropped from 4.2 months last February to just 1.9 months this year — a reduction of more than half. That shift fundamentally changes the competitive landscape heading into spring.
While prices have adjusted slightly, sellers are still receiving 100% of list price on average, signaling that properly positioned homes continue to perform well.
Inventory: The Defining Story This February
New listings fell dramatically year-over-year — from 511 last February to just 225 new listings this year. That represents a more than 50% contraction in fresh inventory entering the market.
Despite fewer listings, 242 homes sold, only slightly below last year’s 259 sales. In other words, demand has remained relatively steady while supply has tightened significantly.
When new inventory declines this sharply while absorption remains consistent, it typically leads to:
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Reduced buyer choice
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Increased competition in desirable price points
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Less negotiating leverage as we approach spring
Days on Market: Stable Pace, Longer Exposure
Average days on market held steady at 77 days, unchanged from last February. This consistency suggests that the overall selling pace has stabilized.
However, cumulative days on market increased from 72 to 82 days, indicating that some properties are lingering longer before securing contracts.
This is not unusual in late winter. Buyers at this time of year tend to be deliberate, and sellers who overprice are seeing extended timelines. Homes that are strategically prepared and priced correctly continue to transact within reasonable timeframes.
Price Per Square Foot: Holding Firm
The average price per square foot rose slightly to $535, up from $534 last year. While modest, this stability reinforces that underlying property values in Sonoma County remain intact.
Price per square foot tends to smooth out volatility seen in median pricing and is often a clearer reflection of true value trends. February’s data suggests foundational strength, even amid shifting inventory dynamics.
How This February Compares to Historical Trends
February typically marks the beginning of increased activity in Sonoma County.
What aligns with seasonal norms:
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Stable pricing
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Consistent days on market
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Measured buyer activity
What stands out this year:
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Exceptionally low inventory
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Significant drop in new listings
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Continued full list price performance
The structural supply constraint remains the dominant theme as we approach peak season.
Seller Takeaways
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Inventory is dramatically lower than last year
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Buyers are still paying full list price on average
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Competition among sellers is significantly reduced
Sellers who enter the market before spring inventory builds may benefit from limited competition and motivated buyers.
Buyer Takeaways
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Fewer listings mean less selection
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Negotiation exists, but leverage is narrowing
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Lower interest rates makes purchasing a bit less expensive than in prior years
Buyers waiting for a surge in inventory may face stronger competition if listing volume does not meaningfully increase in the coming months.
Looking Ahead
Sonoma County enters spring 2026 with slightly adjusted pricing, steady demand, and sharply reduced supply. If new listings remain constrained while buyer activity accelerates seasonally, market conditions could tighten further.